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<p>The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represent China’s flagship global infrastructure strategy; however, the influence of domestic governance variations on implementation remains underexplored. This study employs a convergent mixed-methods design, combining hierarchical linear modeling of panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2015–2019) with qualitative process tracing and discourse analysis. The findings show that provincial bureaucratic capacity, fiscal resources, and governance quality significantly influence BRI implementation effectiveness, with bureaucratic capacity as the primary determinant. Qualitative evidence identifies three distinct provincial implementation pathways: capacity-driven proactive engagement, adaptive execution, and symbolic compliance. These findings challenge monolithic portrayals of Chinese state capacity, demonstrating substantial subnational variation in policy execution. The study highlights the importance of aligning BRI strategies with provincial capacities, as this alignment can lead to more effective implementation and better outcomes in infrastructure projects. This study offers practical insights for policymakers and international partners to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of China’s infrastructure policy.</p>

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Provincial Governance and Variation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • Zheng Gong,
  • Tim David

摘要

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represent China’s flagship global infrastructure strategy; however, the influence of domestic governance variations on implementation remains underexplored. This study employs a convergent mixed-methods design, combining hierarchical linear modeling of panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2015–2019) with qualitative process tracing and discourse analysis. The findings show that provincial bureaucratic capacity, fiscal resources, and governance quality significantly influence BRI implementation effectiveness, with bureaucratic capacity as the primary determinant. Qualitative evidence identifies three distinct provincial implementation pathways: capacity-driven proactive engagement, adaptive execution, and symbolic compliance. These findings challenge monolithic portrayals of Chinese state capacity, demonstrating substantial subnational variation in policy execution. The study highlights the importance of aligning BRI strategies with provincial capacities, as this alignment can lead to more effective implementation and better outcomes in infrastructure projects. This study offers practical insights for policymakers and international partners to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of China’s infrastructure policy.