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<p>Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) does not provoke uniform public resistance in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Instead, security and economic threat narratives selectively reshape support, leading publics to distinguish between investors and investment modes rather than react unthinkingly to China’s presence. This study joins strategic narrative theory with the political economy literature to examine how threat narratives may alter public attitudes toward foreign investors. We develop an audience–cue–context (ACC) framework that treats narratives as cue-level inputs whose effects depend on who is listening (the audience) and what the investment signals (the context). We test these expectations through a survey experiment in Kyrgyzstan (<i>n</i> = 1,548), an independent, BRI investment recipient country neighbouring China, where Chinese investment is both visible and contested. Respondents were randomly exposed to security-threat, economic-threat, or neutral vignettes, and asked to evaluate Chinese FDI projects that varied by ownership (state-owned vs. private) and entry mode (greenfield vs. acquisition). Our findings show that security narratives significantly depress support for Chinese FDI, whereas economic threat narratives have weaker, more heterogeneous effects. Responses are structured rather than uniform: state-owned enterprises and greenfield investments attract heightened scrutiny under security framings, while economic frames interact more strongly with specific audience predispositions and contextual cues. Open-ended responses confirm that public reactions are structured and cue-sensitive, not uniformly sceptical. This study contributes to the literature on political communication, Chinese foreign policy, and FDI by operationalising narrative reception as a function of contextually embedded cues and audience filters in our ACC framework. Jessica E. Neafie is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Nazarbayev University (Kazakhstan). Her research focuses on China’s foreign policy in emerging economies, on multipolarity, on middle-power strategy, and on energy and environmental governance in Central Asia. She leads and co-leads several international research projects on public opinion toward China, foreign policy, and environmental policy. </p>

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Strategic Narratives and Public Support for Chinese Investment: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Kyrgyzstan

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月23日

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  • Jessica Neafie,
  • Aigerim Aibassova,
  • Christopher Primiano

摘要

Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) does not provoke uniform public resistance in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Instead, security and economic threat narratives selectively reshape support, leading publics to distinguish between investors and investment modes rather than react unthinkingly to China’s presence. This study joins strategic narrative theory with the political economy literature to examine how threat narratives may alter public attitudes toward foreign investors. We develop an audience–cue–context (ACC) framework that treats narratives as cue-level inputs whose effects depend on who is listening (the audience) and what the investment signals (the context). We test these expectations through a survey experiment in Kyrgyzstan (n = 1,548), an independent, BRI investment recipient country neighbouring China, where Chinese investment is both visible and contested. Respondents were randomly exposed to security-threat, economic-threat, or neutral vignettes, and asked to evaluate Chinese FDI projects that varied by ownership (state-owned vs. private) and entry mode (greenfield vs. acquisition). Our findings show that security narratives significantly depress support for Chinese FDI, whereas economic threat narratives have weaker, more heterogeneous effects. Responses are structured rather than uniform: state-owned enterprises and greenfield investments attract heightened scrutiny under security framings, while economic frames interact more strongly with specific audience predispositions and contextual cues. Open-ended responses confirm that public reactions are structured and cue-sensitive, not uniformly sceptical. This study contributes to the literature on political communication, Chinese foreign policy, and FDI by operationalising narrative reception as a function of contextually embedded cues and audience filters in our ACC framework. Jessica E. Neafie is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Nazarbayev University (Kazakhstan). Her research focuses on China’s foreign policy in emerging economies, on multipolarity, on middle-power strategy, and on energy and environmental governance in Central Asia. She leads and co-leads several international research projects on public opinion toward China, foreign policy, and environmental policy.