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<p>Based on past data from 1975 to 2023, this paper forecasts South Asia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through 2030 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The forecasts indicate a sustained rise in emissions across most South Asian nations, with India experiencing the most significant absolute increase, reaching approximately 4610 MtCO₂ by 2030. Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to experience considerable growth (308.4 and 602.3 MtCO₂, respectively). In contrast, Afghanistan’s emissions are projected to remain below 30 MtCO₂ with minor fluctuations, while smaller nations such as Bhutan and the Maldives may see gradual increases, reflecting developmental pressures. This research addresses a significant deficiency in the current literature by offering a region-specific and comparative emissions analysis. Beyond forecasting, the findings offer a foundation for data-driven policy formulation, highlighting the urgent need for national and regional decarbonization strategies, sector-specific interventions, and enhanced cooperation among South Asian countries. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate action into national development planning, promoting regional technology-sharing initiatives, and strengthening adaptation efforts in vulnerable economies to meet the Paris Agreement goals and ensure sustainable development.</p>

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Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in South Asia: a time series analysis using ARIMA models (1975–2030)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Abdul Hasib Mollah,
  • K.M. Rahmatullah Rahat,
  • Md. Saikat Hossen,
  • Masuma Wahab,
  • Md. Tanvir Ahmed

摘要

Based on past data from 1975 to 2023, this paper forecasts South Asia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through 2030 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The forecasts indicate a sustained rise in emissions across most South Asian nations, with India experiencing the most significant absolute increase, reaching approximately 4610 MtCO₂ by 2030. Bangladesh and Pakistan are expected to experience considerable growth (308.4 and 602.3 MtCO₂, respectively). In contrast, Afghanistan’s emissions are projected to remain below 30 MtCO₂ with minor fluctuations, while smaller nations such as Bhutan and the Maldives may see gradual increases, reflecting developmental pressures. This research addresses a significant deficiency in the current literature by offering a region-specific and comparative emissions analysis. Beyond forecasting, the findings offer a foundation for data-driven policy formulation, highlighting the urgent need for national and regional decarbonization strategies, sector-specific interventions, and enhanced cooperation among South Asian countries. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate action into national development planning, promoting regional technology-sharing initiatives, and strengthening adaptation efforts in vulnerable economies to meet the Paris Agreement goals and ensure sustainable development.