<p>This paper analyzes the complex air quality changes observed after three years of the devastating Russian–Ukrainian war. Using remote sensing and near-surface observations for 2019–2024, we provide the first multi-temporal assessment of air pollutant changes, ranging from single events to interannual variability, against the background of the war’s cumulative regional effects. The analysis reveals contrasting short- and long-term impacts. Short-term episodes in urban areas linked to missile and drone attacks increased near-surface pollutant concentrations by 100–400%, with extreme cases exceeding 1000%, while average three-year changes reflected redistribution and shift of emission sources. These shifts produced heterogeneous outcomes: total suspended particles (TSP) mainly decreased in major cities but increased by 14% near the frontline; SO<sub>2</sub> rose in regions reliant on dirtier fuels; NO<sub>2</sub> generally declined by 10–30% with greater variability; and CO mostly decreased except near specific industrial sources. Satellite data confirmed a war-related regional pollution decrease up to 30% for NO<sub>2</sub> in major cities and near the frontline, 10% CO drop because of destructions in Mariupol and SO<sub>2</sub> decrease over the Donetsk region. A decrease in CH<sub>2</sub>O of up to 12% observed in the northern Ukraine probably related to changes in the prevailing meteorological conditions. These findings highlight the war’s dual role in suppressing regular emissions while amplifying localized pollution.</p>

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Comprehensive analysis of air pollution surface-to-columnar changes after three years of the Russian–Ukrainian war

  • Mykhailo Savenets,
  • Liudmyla Nadtochii,
  • Liudmyla Malytska,
  • Tetiana Kozlenko,
  • Kateryna Komisar,
  • Antonina Umanets,
  • Natalia Zhemera,
  • Daria Hrama,
  • Maryna Rudas

摘要

This paper analyzes the complex air quality changes observed after three years of the devastating Russian–Ukrainian war. Using remote sensing and near-surface observations for 2019–2024, we provide the first multi-temporal assessment of air pollutant changes, ranging from single events to interannual variability, against the background of the war’s cumulative regional effects. The analysis reveals contrasting short- and long-term impacts. Short-term episodes in urban areas linked to missile and drone attacks increased near-surface pollutant concentrations by 100–400%, with extreme cases exceeding 1000%, while average three-year changes reflected redistribution and shift of emission sources. These shifts produced heterogeneous outcomes: total suspended particles (TSP) mainly decreased in major cities but increased by 14% near the frontline; SO2 rose in regions reliant on dirtier fuels; NO2 generally declined by 10–30% with greater variability; and CO mostly decreased except near specific industrial sources. Satellite data confirmed a war-related regional pollution decrease up to 30% for NO2 in major cities and near the frontline, 10% CO drop because of destructions in Mariupol and SO2 decrease over the Donetsk region. A decrease in CH2O of up to 12% observed in the northern Ukraine probably related to changes in the prevailing meteorological conditions. These findings highlight the war’s dual role in suppressing regular emissions while amplifying localized pollution.