Spatiotemporal trends and variability of rainfall patterns using innovative polygon trend analysis method for Shetrunji basin, India
摘要
This study analyses monthly rainfall trends in the Shetrunji basin, India, using data from 1971 to 2023 collected from multiple rain gauge stations. Understanding these trends is vital for the region's effective water resource management and climate adaptation. Rainfall trends were evaluated using non-parametric methods, including the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, modified MK, and Sen's Slope Estimator. To enhance the analysis, the Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method was also applied, offering a novel visual and statistical approach to detect intra-seasonal and non-linear changes in rainfall patterns that traditional methods may overlook. The results indicate that pre-monsoon rainfall remained largely stable, with no significant trends observed at any station. However, the monsoon season showed apparent spatial variability. Three stations, Bogadiya, Toda and Chirod, exhibited statistically significant increasing trends in monsoon rainfall, with Sen's slopes ranging from 5.5 to 11.5 mm/month. In contrast, Gopalgram showed no significant trend during the same period. The IPTA method provided additional insight by capturing changes in rainfall distribution within the monsoon season. At Bogadiya, the peak shifted toward September, indicating a delay in rainfall concentration. Chirod showed signs of an extended monsoon, while Toda displayed a redistribution of rainfall within the season. Although Gopalgram showed no trend in conventional tests, IPTA indicated potential intensification during the core monsoon months. These findings highlight the uneven nature of rainfall changes across the basin. Increasing monsoon rainfall in some areas could improve agricultural productivity and water availability, but the lack of change in pre- and post-monsoon periods may lead to seasonal water shortages. These results emphasize the need for location-specific, adaptive water resource planning.