Reassessing determinants of urban energy intensity in China: insights from controllable and uncontrollable factors

This study adopts a new approach to reassess the factors influencing urban energy intensity in China. Initially, the factors impacting energy intensity are classified into controllable and uncontrollable categories. Subsequently, employing a single-factor multi-stage method combined with the Adaboost method, 289 Chinese cities are categorized based on uncontrollable factors to eliminate the influence of inherent differences on energy intensity. Finally, panel data regression analyses are conducted using data from 289 Chinese cities between 2005 and 2016, individually for each city type, to evaluate the extent to which controllable factors contribute to energy intensity. The findings indicate that (1) heightened energy prices, an increased share of electricity consumption, and a greater proportion of centralized heating significantly influence the reduction of energy intensity across all city types; (2) to optimize energy consumption, each city type should adopt specific strategies. For instance, cities located in resource-rich heating regions with low economic outputs can reduce their energy intensity by increasing electricity consumption, while cities with high economic outputs can decrease their energy intensity by increasing natural gas consumption. The findings of this study carry substantial implications for the Chinese government in shaping targeted energy policies tailored to different city types.