Research on the impact of climate change on the income gap between urban and rural areas—empirical analysis based on provincial panel data in China

Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas is the key to achieving common prosperity in China. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of climate change’s impact on urban–rural income gap, this article empirically analyzes the impact of climate change on urban–rural income gap using provincial-level panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020. Research indicates that climate change significantly impacts the urban–rural income gap at the 1% significance level, implying that climate change exacerbates the urban–rural income gap. This widening effect varies significantly across different regions, particularly in the western regions and areas with lower fiscal support for agriculture. Further analysis reveals that there is a mediating role between the total agricultural output value and resource mismatch in the impact of climate change on urban–rural income inequality; the digital rural construction plays a regulatory role in the impact of climate change on the urban–rural income gap. On this basis, policy recommendations are proposed to promote the development of climate-resilient agriculture, improve the meteorological forecast and early warning system, increase financial support, and optimize the allocation of agricultural resources.