Is renewable energy development endangering power supply reliability?

The development of renewable energy is indispensable to promoting the low-carbon transition of power systems. Nevertheless, it also brings uncertainty to the reliability of power systems. Herein, the panel model and panel threshold model are established based on the provincial data in China from 2012 to 2020. The results reveal that the negative effect of renewable energy development (RED) on power supply reliability (PSR) is gradually lessening. If the development of renewable energy is a rational way, power supply reliability can be improved. Additionally, energy-exporting regions bear more risks of RED than energy-importing regions. If the coal prices are stable and natural disasters are manageable, the RED can enhance the PSR. However, if they are not stable or controllable, a high proportion of renewable energy in the power system could cause even more severe problems with PSR. Based on these critical results, some suggestions are made to promote the formation of a new power system.