Energy and social factor decomposition to identify drivers impeding sustainable environmental transition in emerging countries: SDGs-2030 progress assessment using LMDI analysis

The balance between human growth, economic prosperity, and the consumption of hydrocarbon energy factors has become a prerequisite for environmental sustainability. However, the complexities of these factors force researchers to work for more viable combinations of such a balance. Therefore, this study attempted to determine the factors driving environmental sustainability in leading populated economies. For this purpose, the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI) utilized to decompose critical factors such as activity, economy, real density, energy intensity, and suburban effects for the period 1999–2022. Both population and its consequences (economic activity) have been found to be the leading factors behind environmental fluctuations, and energy has a negative impact on hydrocarbon forms, while contributing positively to environmental sustainability with high efficiency and low intensity. Therefore, sustainable demographic and energy transitions can be leading pathways for environmental sustainability in developing economies.