Study on carbon emission reduction countermeasures based on carbon emission influencing factors and trends

The carbon mitigation response encompasses a variety of strategies aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. These measures are crafted to address the challenges posed by climate change and facilitate the transition of businesses towards a low-carbon paradigm. Leveraging the analytical outcomes of the extended STIRPAT model and the PSO-BP prediction model, this paper suggests countermeasures for reducing carbon emissions in China’s metal smelting industry. The overarching objective is to contribute to China’s attainment of the “dual carbon objectives.” The study identifies key factors influencing carbon emissions in the metal smelting industry, ranked in descending order of sensitivity: population, coal consumption, urbanization rate, total metal production, carbon intensity, proportion of secondary industry, and GDP per capita. Results from three established scenarios—namely, low carbon, standard, and high carbon—indicate a consistent decline in carbon emissions from China’s metal smelting industry over the next 15 years. This research not only enhances the findings of existing studies on carbon emissions in the metal smelting sector but also introduces an innovative approach to carbon emission reduction within China’s metal smelting industry.