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<p>The Javan Hawk-Eagle (<i>Nisaetus bartelsi</i>) is an endangered raptor whose conservation has been constrained by limited high-resolution ecological data. This study integrates satellite telemetry and citizen science records within an ensemble modelling framework, incorporating LiDAR-derived canopy structure, to assess current habitat suitability and potential future changes. Model performance was high (TSS = 0.904; ROC = 0.963). Habitat suitability was strongly associated with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_8), with peak suitability around 15&#xa0;°C, and with canopy height, with higher suitability in forests exceeding ~ 25&#xa0;m. Suitable habitat was concentrated in sub-montane zones (700–1450&#xa0;m&#xa0;asl), where climatic and structural conditions overlap. Climate projections indicated relative stability or expansion of suitable habitat until 2040, followed by divergence among scenarios. Under SSP5-8.5, lowland areas showed substantial declines by 2100, while higher elevations exhibited relative stability or increases. However, these areas may differ in structural characteristics, potentially affecting habitat quality. Overlay with protected areas showed that 67.72% of high-suitability habitat occurs within existing conservation networks, although sub-montane zones remain partially unprotected. Overall, integrating climatic and structural variables provides a more comprehensive representation of habitat suitability and may support more spatially targeted conservation planning under changing environmental conditions.</p>

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Projecting future habitat shifts of the Javan Hawk-Eagle: evaluating the spatial bottleneck of high-altitude refugia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月16日

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  • Cici Nurfatimah,
  • Junichi Imanishi

摘要

The Javan Hawk-Eagle (Nisaetus bartelsi) is an endangered raptor whose conservation has been constrained by limited high-resolution ecological data. This study integrates satellite telemetry and citizen science records within an ensemble modelling framework, incorporating LiDAR-derived canopy structure, to assess current habitat suitability and potential future changes. Model performance was high (TSS = 0.904; ROC = 0.963). Habitat suitability was strongly associated with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_8), with peak suitability around 15 °C, and with canopy height, with higher suitability in forests exceeding ~ 25 m. Suitable habitat was concentrated in sub-montane zones (700–1450 m asl), where climatic and structural conditions overlap. Climate projections indicated relative stability or expansion of suitable habitat until 2040, followed by divergence among scenarios. Under SSP5-8.5, lowland areas showed substantial declines by 2100, while higher elevations exhibited relative stability or increases. However, these areas may differ in structural characteristics, potentially affecting habitat quality. Overlay with protected areas showed that 67.72% of high-suitability habitat occurs within existing conservation networks, although sub-montane zones remain partially unprotected. Overall, integrating climatic and structural variables provides a more comprehensive representation of habitat suitability and may support more spatially targeted conservation planning under changing environmental conditions.