Landscape ecological risk changes and its driving forces in the Yangtze River Delta, China
摘要
Understanding the landscape ecological risk and its driving forces is of great significance for the optimization of environmental protection strategies. In the study, the landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed based on the landscape pattern index by using the land use data in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2020. The characteristics and trends of land use change was quantified, and the spatio-temporal dynamic evolution of landscape ecological risk was evaluated. Additionally, the impact of natural, social and economic driving forces were explored combined with geographic detectors. The results showed that the land use transfer mainly occurs between cultivated land and non-cultivated land. From 2000 to 2020, the proportion of arable land decreased from 52% to 47%, mainly converted to construction land, forest land and wetlands. The proportion of wetland area increased from 7.01% in 2000 to 7.50% in 2020. The proportion of construction land increased from 8.6% to 13.6%. Landscape ecological risk exhibited an overall increasing trend. The study area was predominantly characterized by low- and medium-low-risk zones. Low-risk areas initially expanded before contracting, while medium-risk areas showed the opposite pattern. The primary transition in risk levels occurred from low to medium-low-risk, indicating that medium-low risk areas play a pivotal role in landscape ecological risk dynamics. The influence of economic factors on landscape ecological risk has increased substantially, while the impact of natural factors has diminished. By 2020, soil type and GDP had become more critical drivers than natural factors. The interaction between the two factors was greater than that of the single impact factor, and the explanatory power of the interaction between economic factors and social factors was significantly enhanced.