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<p>This paper discusses different, inter-related notions of confirmation bias as classified by Nickerson (Rev Gen Psychol 2(2):175–220, 1998), distinguishing broadly between confirmation bias in evidence search, evidence selection, evidence evaluation, and evidence communication. It then sets out an overlooked rational basis for seeming bias in evidence search that stems from reasonable expectations about the real-world distribution of evidence in favour and against a claim. The implications of this for communication and argumentation are discussed, as are the implications of taking into account plausible evidence distributions for research on bias more generally.</p>

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Confirmation bias and the plausible distribution of evidence

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月24日

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  • Ulrike Hahn

摘要

This paper discusses different, inter-related notions of confirmation bias as classified by Nickerson (Rev Gen Psychol 2(2):175–220, 1998), distinguishing broadly between confirmation bias in evidence search, evidence selection, evidence evaluation, and evidence communication. It then sets out an overlooked rational basis for seeming bias in evidence search that stems from reasonable expectations about the real-world distribution of evidence in favour and against a claim. The implications of this for communication and argumentation are discussed, as are the implications of taking into account plausible evidence distributions for research on bias more generally.