Expected Impacts of COVID-19 on the BMI of Canadian Adults through Food Prices, Physical Activity, and Employment
摘要
This study predicts the body weight implications of coronavirus disease 2019 using eight waves of pre-pandemic Canadian Community Health Survey data (2003–2018). Since coronavirus disease 2019 affected the level and location of meal production, leisure, and work, the primary determinants of interest are food quantities, physical activity, and employment. Assuming prices are an inverse proxy of food quantities, regression results suggest that away-from-home meals are associated with a higher body mass index, meaning that lockdowns may have caused Canadians to lose weight. However, the decrease in consumption of take-out meals was smaller than for dine-in meals, and results suggest the former is far more predictive of weight gain. Consequently, substitution within the away-from-home category plausibly mitigated some of the impact of more at-home meals. Given that at-home physical activity was an incomplete substitute for away-from-home exercise during the pandemic, on average, regression results imply that Canadians gained weight. While employment is associated with weight gain among those ages 25–64, it is associated with weight loss for those 18–24. Young people were more at risk of job loss during coronavirus 2019 and their re-entry to the labour market was characterised by employment similar, in terms of physical activity, to that of older Canadians. Thus, for those 18–24, weight gain from job loss is expected to have occurred during the lockdown months and, unlike behavioural changes in eating and exercise that were primarily temporary, the post-pandemic shift to more sedentary employment will likely have a long-run impact on the body weight of young Canadians.