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<p>This paper examines the effect of H-1B visa lottery outcomes on firm concentration and business diversity at the county level in the United States, leveraging a natural experiment. H-1B data from the Department of Labor and United States Citizenship and Immigration Services were merged with business data from the United States Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns to analyze changes in market structure. Business diversity was measured using two indices: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and the Shannon Diversity Index. Using a continuous difference-in-differences design, the analysis found that counties with a higher lottery win rate experienced a 0.64% decline in the Herfindahl Hirschman Index and a 0.27% increase in the Shannon Diversity Index. These findings suggest that high-skilled immigration contributes to economic diversification, supporting the broader argument that the H-1B visa plays a role beyond filling labor shortages.</p>

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Skilled Immigration and Business Diversity: Evidence from the H-1B Lottery

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月1日

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  • Spencer Ma

摘要

This paper examines the effect of H-1B visa lottery outcomes on firm concentration and business diversity at the county level in the United States, leveraging a natural experiment. H-1B data from the Department of Labor and United States Citizenship and Immigration Services were merged with business data from the United States Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns to analyze changes in market structure. Business diversity was measured using two indices: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and the Shannon Diversity Index. Using a continuous difference-in-differences design, the analysis found that counties with a higher lottery win rate experienced a 0.64% decline in the Herfindahl Hirschman Index and a 0.27% increase in the Shannon Diversity Index. These findings suggest that high-skilled immigration contributes to economic diversification, supporting the broader argument that the H-1B visa plays a role beyond filling labor shortages.