Scholarlink

Objectives <p>From January to June 2020, New York’s initial bail reform law eliminated money bail and pretrial detention for certain offense types. This study examines the reform’s impact on pretrial recidivism.</p> Methods <p>Exploiting the reform’s simple, offense-based eligibility rules, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) design to estimate effects on multiple pretrial recidivism measures: any re-arrest, felony re-arrest, and violent felony re-arrest. Analyses are conducted for the full sample and a high-risk subgroup with recent criminal history.</p> Results <p>In the full sample, we find a small but statistically significant increase in any re-arrest. Among high-risk defendants, increases are larger and observed across all recidivism measures. </p> Conclusions <p>Restricting bail and pretrial detention based on offense type alone is associated with increased recidivism, particularly among individuals with recent criminal activity. These findings suggest bail reforms may benefit from preserving judicial discretion to consider recent history or from expanding pretrial supervision and support for higher-risk individuals.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Evaluating the impact of New York’s bail reform on recidivism: a difference-in-differences study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

查看全文
  • Stephen Koppel,
  • René Ropac

摘要

Objectives

From January to June 2020, New York’s initial bail reform law eliminated money bail and pretrial detention for certain offense types. This study examines the reform’s impact on pretrial recidivism.

Methods

Exploiting the reform’s simple, offense-based eligibility rules, we employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) design to estimate effects on multiple pretrial recidivism measures: any re-arrest, felony re-arrest, and violent felony re-arrest. Analyses are conducted for the full sample and a high-risk subgroup with recent criminal history.

Results

In the full sample, we find a small but statistically significant increase in any re-arrest. Among high-risk defendants, increases are larger and observed across all recidivism measures.

Conclusions

Restricting bail and pretrial detention based on offense type alone is associated with increased recidivism, particularly among individuals with recent criminal activity. These findings suggest bail reforms may benefit from preserving judicial discretion to consider recent history or from expanding pretrial supervision and support for higher-risk individuals.