The impact of a youth-focused problem-oriented policing initiative on crime: findings from a randomized controlled trial in three cities

This study tests whether Problem-Oriented Policing (POP) in hot spots of crime reduces property and violent crime in three cities, comparing POP versus control hot spots. We also examined low-levels versus high-levels of POP versus control on crime separately for pre-, during- and post-intervention.

This paper reports on a randomized controlled trial of POP replicated in three communities over one year using Poisson and negative binomial regression models.

We did not find any significant intervention effect on violent crimes post intervention in any of the three sites but observed some unintended iatrogenic/negative effect of lowlevel treatment on property crimes in two sites.

Due to difficulties experienced in implementing POP, we caution against concluding POP does not work. Instead, low level POP implementation during the era of post COVID-19 and anti-policing sentiment post the George Floyd murder may not be effective in reducing property and violent crime.