Hot spot policing in two stages: informal and formal programs in buffalo

This study evaluated a micro hot spot (MHS) program developed based entirely on the chief executive’s professional exposure to hot spot policing tactics. It considers the informal stage followed by a formal stage in program development and implementation.

To examine the MHS program on gun violence, the study executes multiple interrupted time series analyses using Poisson or negative binomial regression to model count data with a non-normal distribution. Weekly crime and calls for service data are analyzed at the city level.

We report a significant decrease in the level of calls for service involving non-fatal shootings, compared to the pre-intervention level. Further, the decreasing trend became steeper in the post-MHS program period. There is also evidence of decreases in both the level and trend of gun homicides in the post-intervention period.

The study provides insight to police departments with basic evidence-based knowledge that attempts to address gun violence in a timely manner.