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<p>This study investigates long-term mangrove dynamics in the Sundarbans from 1776 to 2022 by integrating historical maps and remote sensing. The objectives are to reconstruct historical mangrove extent, quantify temporal changes, and identify spatial–statistical patterns of degradation. The scope combines archival cartography (1776–1968) with satellite-era analyses (1988–2022), including NDVI differencing, transition matrix, spatial autocorrelation, and multiple statistical models. Results show a drastic decline in mangrove area from 6588 km<sup>2</sup> (1776) to 1324.67 km<sup>2</sup> (2022) (~ 80% loss), with the most severe reductions during 1873–1968 (− 61.98%) and 1968–1988 (− 37.37%). Segmented regression identifies a breakpoint around 1873, with accelerated loss rates increasing to − 34 km<sup>2</sup>/year. Mann–Kendall test (τ =  − 0.867, p = 0.024) confirms a significant long-term decreasing trend. Satellite analysis reveals a temporary increase from 1460 km<sup>2</sup> (1988) to 1544 km<sup>2</sup> (2001), followed by decline to 1428 km<sup>2</sup> (2022), resulting in a net loss of ~ 420 km<sup>2</sup>. NDVI transition analysis shows 327.5 km<sup>2</sup> persistence, 493.6 km<sup>2</sup> loss, and limited gain (73.7 km<sup>2</sup>). Significant clustering (Moran’s I = 0.366, p &lt; 0.001) indicates spatially concentrated change. Overall, mangrove degradation is historically rooted and spatially uneven, emphasizing the need for targeted site specific process response based regeneration strategies.</p>

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Unveiling the historical repositories on Sundarbans through decipherment of retrospective myths to prospective reality

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月15日

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  • Sweta Chatterjee,
  • Gupinath Bhandari

摘要

This study investigates long-term mangrove dynamics in the Sundarbans from 1776 to 2022 by integrating historical maps and remote sensing. The objectives are to reconstruct historical mangrove extent, quantify temporal changes, and identify spatial–statistical patterns of degradation. The scope combines archival cartography (1776–1968) with satellite-era analyses (1988–2022), including NDVI differencing, transition matrix, spatial autocorrelation, and multiple statistical models. Results show a drastic decline in mangrove area from 6588 km2 (1776) to 1324.67 km2 (2022) (~ 80% loss), with the most severe reductions during 1873–1968 (− 61.98%) and 1968–1988 (− 37.37%). Segmented regression identifies a breakpoint around 1873, with accelerated loss rates increasing to − 34 km2/year. Mann–Kendall test (τ =  − 0.867, p = 0.024) confirms a significant long-term decreasing trend. Satellite analysis reveals a temporary increase from 1460 km2 (1988) to 1544 km2 (2001), followed by decline to 1428 km2 (2022), resulting in a net loss of ~ 420 km2. NDVI transition analysis shows 327.5 km2 persistence, 493.6 km2 loss, and limited gain (73.7 km2). Significant clustering (Moran’s I = 0.366, p < 0.001) indicates spatially concentrated change. Overall, mangrove degradation is historically rooted and spatially uneven, emphasizing the need for targeted site specific process response based regeneration strategies.