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<p>Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is increasingly used in ecosystem services and climate research to integrate diverse perspectives and raise awareness. However, evidence of its policy impact remains limited. This study applied PSP in Kenya’s Yala Wetland to co-develop locally grounded scenarios for safeguarding ecosystem services with 74 stakeholders in three workshops. Stakeholders identified four key drivers of change: land-use change, environmental degradation, resource overuse, and governance challenges—with land-use change being most critical. Four scenario narratives were developed, revealing trade-offs and synergies between conservation and development. Community-led conservation scenarios promoted cohesion and sustainability but faced risks from weak governance. Development-driven scenarios projected growth at the cost of environmental and social disruption. Across scenarios, stakeholders recognised that future trajectories would be shaped by how governance arrangements, land-use choices, and environmental pressures interact and emphasised the urgency of implementing the Yala Wetland Land Use Plan (LUP). The study shows PSP’s value in fostering dialogue and informing inclusive, adaptive policy in complex landscapes.</p>

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Participatory scenarios to address competing priorities in wetland ecosystems: case of Yala Wetland, Kenya

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月8日

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  • Yvonne Wambui Githiora,
  • Jessica P. R. Thorn,
  • Margaret Awuor Owuor,
  • Romulus Abila,
  • Daniel O. Olago

摘要

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is increasingly used in ecosystem services and climate research to integrate diverse perspectives and raise awareness. However, evidence of its policy impact remains limited. This study applied PSP in Kenya’s Yala Wetland to co-develop locally grounded scenarios for safeguarding ecosystem services with 74 stakeholders in three workshops. Stakeholders identified four key drivers of change: land-use change, environmental degradation, resource overuse, and governance challenges—with land-use change being most critical. Four scenario narratives were developed, revealing trade-offs and synergies between conservation and development. Community-led conservation scenarios promoted cohesion and sustainability but faced risks from weak governance. Development-driven scenarios projected growth at the cost of environmental and social disruption. Across scenarios, stakeholders recognised that future trajectories would be shaped by how governance arrangements, land-use choices, and environmental pressures interact and emphasised the urgency of implementing the Yala Wetland Land Use Plan (LUP). The study shows PSP’s value in fostering dialogue and informing inclusive, adaptive policy in complex landscapes.