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<p>Rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes are transforming the ecological landscape of Tanzania’s Lower Mara River Basin (LMRB), with significant implications for water resources and ecosystem health. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC in the basin from 2003 to 2023, using Google Earth Engine and Landsat imagery, and examines how these changes are linked to population growth and precipitation variability. Four LULC classes-vegetation, water bodies, settlements, and other uses (mining, agriculture and bareland) were mapped and analyzed for the years 2003, 2013, and 2023. Results reveal a dramatic expansion of settlement areas, from just 7.4% in 2003 to 42.1% in 2023, driven by population increase of 26% from 2002 to 2022 and intensified economic activity. In contrast, water bodies have sharply declined from 19.3% to 3.7% over the same period, while vegetation cover, after a temporary increase linked to conservation efforts i.e. from 21.7% in 2003 to 28.8% in 2013, has diminished in the past decade to 23% in 2023. Although precipitation patterns showed variability, they did not strongly correlate with overall LULC changes, but did influence short-term vegetation and water dynamics. The findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable land management and water resource policies, as unchecked settlement growth and vanishing water bodies threaten the resilience and ecological integrity of the LMRB. Immediate action is required to balance economic development with ecosystem conservation and secure the basin’s future for both people and nature.</p>

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Vanishing waters and growing settlements: tracking the impact of land use land cover changes on the Lower Mara River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月17日

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  • Irene Calist Kimario,
  • Msafiri Yusuph Mkonda,
  • Silvia Francis Materu

摘要

Rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes are transforming the ecological landscape of Tanzania’s Lower Mara River Basin (LMRB), with significant implications for water resources and ecosystem health. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC in the basin from 2003 to 2023, using Google Earth Engine and Landsat imagery, and examines how these changes are linked to population growth and precipitation variability. Four LULC classes-vegetation, water bodies, settlements, and other uses (mining, agriculture and bareland) were mapped and analyzed for the years 2003, 2013, and 2023. Results reveal a dramatic expansion of settlement areas, from just 7.4% in 2003 to 42.1% in 2023, driven by population increase of 26% from 2002 to 2022 and intensified economic activity. In contrast, water bodies have sharply declined from 19.3% to 3.7% over the same period, while vegetation cover, after a temporary increase linked to conservation efforts i.e. from 21.7% in 2003 to 28.8% in 2013, has diminished in the past decade to 23% in 2023. Although precipitation patterns showed variability, they did not strongly correlate with overall LULC changes, but did influence short-term vegetation and water dynamics. The findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable land management and water resource policies, as unchecked settlement growth and vanishing water bodies threaten the resilience and ecological integrity of the LMRB. Immediate action is required to balance economic development with ecosystem conservation and secure the basin’s future for both people and nature.