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<p>Water yield (WY) supports water availability for ecological processes and productive human activities. However, WY response to the combined effects of climate variability and land use/land cover (LULC) changes remains insufficiently understood at the basin scale. This study addresses this gap by quantifying how both factors modify WY through a GIS-based multitemporal analysis supported by hydrological submodels in the Middle Balsas Basin, a water-deficit region of strategic importance to Mexico. A 1.1&#xa0;°C increase in temperature was identified, with a stronger upward trend toward the northern portion of the basin (τ = 0.62), while precipitation increased by 73&#xa0;mm, mainly in the southern region (τ = 0.28). LULC changes showed an expansion of temperate forest (1,217.9&#xa0;km²) and tropical deciduous forest (359.7&#xa0;km²), along with accelerated urban growth (7.93% annually) and a reduction in agricultural areas (-786.9&#xa0;km²). Simulated WY for the basin varied from − 1.3% to 5.5%, indicating limited variability. The greatest contributions to total WY were associated with the dominant forest land cover types, while urban areas, bare soil, and grasslands showed the greatest runoff depths (679.4–790.3&#xa0;mm). These findings indicate that WY is primarily controlled by climatic conditions, while LULC modulate its spatial distribution, and urban area emerges as a key factor altering hydrological responses. The results highlight the importance of integrating climate variability and LULC changes into land use planning and water management in regions with high climate variability and limited water availability.</p>

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Effect of Climate Variability and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Water Yield in a Water Deficit Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月29日

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  • Jonathan Bautista Nájera,
  • Juan M. Esquivel Martínez,
  • Miguel Angel Gómez-Albores,
  • Alfredo Méndez Bahena,
  • Sergio A. Salgado Souto,
  • Vania Jiménez-Lobato

摘要

Water yield (WY) supports water availability for ecological processes and productive human activities. However, WY response to the combined effects of climate variability and land use/land cover (LULC) changes remains insufficiently understood at the basin scale. This study addresses this gap by quantifying how both factors modify WY through a GIS-based multitemporal analysis supported by hydrological submodels in the Middle Balsas Basin, a water-deficit region of strategic importance to Mexico. A 1.1 °C increase in temperature was identified, with a stronger upward trend toward the northern portion of the basin (τ = 0.62), while precipitation increased by 73 mm, mainly in the southern region (τ = 0.28). LULC changes showed an expansion of temperate forest (1,217.9 km²) and tropical deciduous forest (359.7 km²), along with accelerated urban growth (7.93% annually) and a reduction in agricultural areas (-786.9 km²). Simulated WY for the basin varied from − 1.3% to 5.5%, indicating limited variability. The greatest contributions to total WY were associated with the dominant forest land cover types, while urban areas, bare soil, and grasslands showed the greatest runoff depths (679.4–790.3 mm). These findings indicate that WY is primarily controlled by climatic conditions, while LULC modulate its spatial distribution, and urban area emerges as a key factor altering hydrological responses. The results highlight the importance of integrating climate variability and LULC changes into land use planning and water management in regions with high climate variability and limited water availability.