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<p>Given the increasing importance of groundwater sustainability management, especially in arid regions, this study develops an integrated distributive index for aquifer sustainability in Iran’s Kashan Plain, incorporating uncertainty. The framework uses a MODFLOW numerical model (via GMS and MATLAB) for distributed analysis, develops easily accessible sustainability indicators, identifies certainty degrees (CD) using cloud model theory, and applies evidential reasoning (ERA) for the final SI. An analysis of four executive operational scenarios (2011–2016) identified removing deep wells (&gt; 100&#xa0;m) as the most effective solution for aquifer stability. This scenario reduced unsustainable levels by 41%, increased sustainable levels by 288%, and raised the average monthly groundwater table level by 4.96&#xa0;m. Long-term balancing requires initially removing deep wells, followed by management rules and wellhead protection area to mitigate interference. Reducing total withdrawal and permitted discharge are final options. The study highlights the Kashan aquifer’s worrying quantitative status, necessitating updated sustainable operation policies. The integrated distributive model is presented as a flexible and reliable tool for decision-makers managing other aquifers.</p>

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Distributive Assessment of the Groundwater Sustainability Level Using the GMS Model and Aggregating the Developed Indicators based on the Cloud Model-based and Evidential Reasoning Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月9日

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  • Mahmoud Mohammad Rezapour Tabari,
  • Saeed Toghyani

摘要

Given the increasing importance of groundwater sustainability management, especially in arid regions, this study develops an integrated distributive index for aquifer sustainability in Iran’s Kashan Plain, incorporating uncertainty. The framework uses a MODFLOW numerical model (via GMS and MATLAB) for distributed analysis, develops easily accessible sustainability indicators, identifies certainty degrees (CD) using cloud model theory, and applies evidential reasoning (ERA) for the final SI. An analysis of four executive operational scenarios (2011–2016) identified removing deep wells (> 100 m) as the most effective solution for aquifer stability. This scenario reduced unsustainable levels by 41%, increased sustainable levels by 288%, and raised the average monthly groundwater table level by 4.96 m. Long-term balancing requires initially removing deep wells, followed by management rules and wellhead protection area to mitigate interference. Reducing total withdrawal and permitted discharge are final options. The study highlights the Kashan aquifer’s worrying quantitative status, necessitating updated sustainable operation policies. The integrated distributive model is presented as a flexible and reliable tool for decision-makers managing other aquifers.