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<p>Throughout history, flood disasters have been a major concern in China, necessitating close attention and proactive prevention measures. With the rapid development of society, the damage caused by floods has become increasingly severe. This study focuses on the Beiru River, using DEM data and MIKE FLOOD software to construct a coupled one-dimensional(1D) and two-dimensional(2D) hydrodynamic numerical simulation model. This model is employed to analyze the dynamic evolution and inundation effects of floods under 1%, 2%, and 5% annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs).The results indicate the following: (1) Under the 20-year flood scenario, the maximum inundation depth reaches 6.9&#xa0;m, with a submerged area of 46.87&#xa0;km², accounting for 62.8% of the total study area. For the 50-year flood, the maximum depth increases to 7.62&#xa0;m, and the submerged area expanding to 49.11&#xa0;km²(65.8% of the total study area). For the 100-year flood, the maximum inundation depth rises to 8.7&#xa0;m, with a submerged area of 51.51&#xa0;km²( 69% of the total study area).(2) The most severely affected area is located in the upstream Yangwan Village, where the inundation depth reaches 8.7&#xa0;m. In Xiangcheng County, water depths range from 0.5 to 2&#xa0;m. In contrast, areas west of Ziyun Avenue, south of Wenchang Road, and east of Beida Street experience minimal or no water accumulation, with depths less than 0.5&#xa0;m.(3) For a 100-year flood scenario, three breach schemes with widths of 50&#xa0;m, 100&#xa0;m, and 150&#xa0;m are proposed. By comparing the inundation range and water depth, the optimal flood control strategy is identified. (4) An analysis of three representative cross-sections—located in the upstream, middle, and downstream reaches of the river—reveals significant spatial differences in flood responses across different parts of the river channel.</p>

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Flood Risk Assessment and Management Strategies under Extreme Frequency Events

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Xianqi Zhang,
  • Yimeng Xiao,
  • Jie Zhu,
  • Wanhui Cheng,
  • Yuehan Zhang

摘要

Throughout history, flood disasters have been a major concern in China, necessitating close attention and proactive prevention measures. With the rapid development of society, the damage caused by floods has become increasingly severe. This study focuses on the Beiru River, using DEM data and MIKE FLOOD software to construct a coupled one-dimensional(1D) and two-dimensional(2D) hydrodynamic numerical simulation model. This model is employed to analyze the dynamic evolution and inundation effects of floods under 1%, 2%, and 5% annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs).The results indicate the following: (1) Under the 20-year flood scenario, the maximum inundation depth reaches 6.9 m, with a submerged area of 46.87 km², accounting for 62.8% of the total study area. For the 50-year flood, the maximum depth increases to 7.62 m, and the submerged area expanding to 49.11 km²(65.8% of the total study area). For the 100-year flood, the maximum inundation depth rises to 8.7 m, with a submerged area of 51.51 km²( 69% of the total study area).(2) The most severely affected area is located in the upstream Yangwan Village, where the inundation depth reaches 8.7 m. In Xiangcheng County, water depths range from 0.5 to 2 m. In contrast, areas west of Ziyun Avenue, south of Wenchang Road, and east of Beida Street experience minimal or no water accumulation, with depths less than 0.5 m.(3) For a 100-year flood scenario, three breach schemes with widths of 50 m, 100 m, and 150 m are proposed. By comparing the inundation range and water depth, the optimal flood control strategy is identified. (4) An analysis of three representative cross-sections—located in the upstream, middle, and downstream reaches of the river—reveals significant spatial differences in flood responses across different parts of the river channel.