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<p>This paper advances compound flood risk assessment by explicitly integrating fluvial and coastal flooding processes within a regional-scale two-dimensional hydrodynamic framework for a tropical megacity, Bangkok. Unlike previous studies, which typically assess fluvial and coastal flooding separately, this research captures their dynamic interaction under recent future climate and sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (CMIP6). A hybrid modeling framework that combines statistically downscaled climate projections, robust empirical quantile mapping for bias correction, and a neurogenetic algorithm for river discharge forecasting. Six-month monsoon precipitation is projected to increase by 3.92% (8.16%) and 12.72% (21.47%) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) by 2050 and 2100, respectively. Relative SLR further intensifies coastal flooding, with inundation areas projected to expand by 3.2% (3.6%), 8.2% (8.4%), 14% (15.1%), and 21.4% (26.2%) in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. The findings highlight the inadequacy of the current national master plan in addressing compound flood risks under future conditions. The interaction of intensified fluvial flooding and SLR will amplify the severity and extent of future flood events. Adaptive urban planning, integrated water management, and early warning systems should be strengthened to enhance Bangkok’s resilience under future climate conditions.</p>

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Sinking City : The Future of Bangkok Amid Climate Change and Rising Sea Levels

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Seree Supharatid,
  • Sawitree Rojpratak

摘要

This paper advances compound flood risk assessment by explicitly integrating fluvial and coastal flooding processes within a regional-scale two-dimensional hydrodynamic framework for a tropical megacity, Bangkok. Unlike previous studies, which typically assess fluvial and coastal flooding separately, this research captures their dynamic interaction under recent future climate and sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (CMIP6). A hybrid modeling framework that combines statistically downscaled climate projections, robust empirical quantile mapping for bias correction, and a neurogenetic algorithm for river discharge forecasting. Six-month monsoon precipitation is projected to increase by 3.92% (8.16%) and 12.72% (21.47%) under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) by 2050 and 2100, respectively. Relative SLR further intensifies coastal flooding, with inundation areas projected to expand by 3.2% (3.6%), 8.2% (8.4%), 14% (15.1%), and 21.4% (26.2%) in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090, respectively. The findings highlight the inadequacy of the current national master plan in addressing compound flood risks under future conditions. The interaction of intensified fluvial flooding and SLR will amplify the severity and extent of future flood events. Adaptive urban planning, integrated water management, and early warning systems should be strengthened to enhance Bangkok’s resilience under future climate conditions.