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<p>This study employs an agent-based model (ABM) integrated with a hydrologic model to assess the impacts of reservoir operation policies on agricultural water consumption. The proposed socio-hydrological framework simulates dynamic reservoir operations, accounting for shifts in crop patterns in response to agricultural water demand driven by farmers’ decision-making process. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate surface runoff, crops yields and water consumption while ABM simulates farmer activities, including crop selection for the following period, influenced by individual intelligence and historical memory. In this study, the effects of Standard Operating Policy (SOP) and Hedging Policy (HP) are evaluated on farmers’ decision and behavior, revealing a 16% increase in basin’s annual profit under the SOP policy and a substantial 78% increase under the HP policy compared to the current condition scenario. To understand potential impacts of climate change on the basin, optimistic (SSP2.6) and pessimistic (SSP8.5) scenarios are incorporated into the socio-hydrological model. Climate change projections indicate reduced precipitation and increased temperatures in both scenarios exacerbating water scarcity. These changes highlight the need for management strategies that are both adaptive and resilient to long-term climatic shifts. The robust performance of the SWAT-ABM-HP model under both climate scenarios underscores its potential as a viable policy making tool for promoting sustainable water planning, safeguarding farmer incomes and maintaining agricultural stability.</p>

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Evaluating Effect of Reservoir Operation Policy on Agricultural Water Consumption in Climate Change Condition Using a Socio-Hydrological Model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月18日

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  • Saeed Heidari,
  • Mojtaba Shourian,
  • Maryam Javansalehi,
  • Saeed Lotfi

摘要

This study employs an agent-based model (ABM) integrated with a hydrologic model to assess the impacts of reservoir operation policies on agricultural water consumption. The proposed socio-hydrological framework simulates dynamic reservoir operations, accounting for shifts in crop patterns in response to agricultural water demand driven by farmers’ decision-making process. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate surface runoff, crops yields and water consumption while ABM simulates farmer activities, including crop selection for the following period, influenced by individual intelligence and historical memory. In this study, the effects of Standard Operating Policy (SOP) and Hedging Policy (HP) are evaluated on farmers’ decision and behavior, revealing a 16% increase in basin’s annual profit under the SOP policy and a substantial 78% increase under the HP policy compared to the current condition scenario. To understand potential impacts of climate change on the basin, optimistic (SSP2.6) and pessimistic (SSP8.5) scenarios are incorporated into the socio-hydrological model. Climate change projections indicate reduced precipitation and increased temperatures in both scenarios exacerbating water scarcity. These changes highlight the need for management strategies that are both adaptive and resilient to long-term climatic shifts. The robust performance of the SWAT-ABM-HP model under both climate scenarios underscores its potential as a viable policy making tool for promoting sustainable water planning, safeguarding farmer incomes and maintaining agricultural stability.