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<p>Soil moisture (SM) is a significant factor affecting vegetation growth and plays a crucial role in the water cycle. Nevertheless, because SM data are not readily obtainable at a large scale, the study of the drought propagation law using simulation data and subbasin division from hydrological models with strong physical mechanisms is lacking. To this end, SM data simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model were adopted, and the standardized soil moisture index and standardized precipitation index were used to represent soil moisture drought (SMD) and meteorological drought, respectively. The seasonal propagation time (PT) was calculated based on the conditional probability of copula function. The drought propagation dynamics were analyzed using a moving window, and the driving factors from meteorological drought to SMD were explored by using the random forest method. In this study, the Luanhe River Basin was selected as a case study. The results revealed that (1) the SM simulated by the SWAT model showed an insignificant decreasing trend in summer overall; (2) the drought propagation time (DPT) was the shortest in summer and the longest in spring; (3) the DPT showed a significant upward trend in summer and autumn overall, but it was the opposite in the middle of the study area in spring; and (4) SM, evapotranspiration and water balance strongly influenced the DPT, and the combined influence of sunspots, ENSO and teleconnection factors could not be ignored. This is highly important for understanding the drought propagation law and rational planning of water resources.</p>

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Analysis of Seasonal Propagation Dynamics and the Potential Driving Factors from Meteorological to Soil Moisture Drought

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月21日

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  • Meng Dai,
  • Ping Feng,
  • Jianzhu Li,
  • Renjie Tao

摘要

Soil moisture (SM) is a significant factor affecting vegetation growth and plays a crucial role in the water cycle. Nevertheless, because SM data are not readily obtainable at a large scale, the study of the drought propagation law using simulation data and subbasin division from hydrological models with strong physical mechanisms is lacking. To this end, SM data simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model were adopted, and the standardized soil moisture index and standardized precipitation index were used to represent soil moisture drought (SMD) and meteorological drought, respectively. The seasonal propagation time (PT) was calculated based on the conditional probability of copula function. The drought propagation dynamics were analyzed using a moving window, and the driving factors from meteorological drought to SMD were explored by using the random forest method. In this study, the Luanhe River Basin was selected as a case study. The results revealed that (1) the SM simulated by the SWAT model showed an insignificant decreasing trend in summer overall; (2) the drought propagation time (DPT) was the shortest in summer and the longest in spring; (3) the DPT showed a significant upward trend in summer and autumn overall, but it was the opposite in the middle of the study area in spring; and (4) SM, evapotranspiration and water balance strongly influenced the DPT, and the combined influence of sunspots, ENSO and teleconnection factors could not be ignored. This is highly important for understanding the drought propagation law and rational planning of water resources.