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<p>Conventional flood-season regulation typically keeps reservoir water levels at or below the planned flood limited water level (FLWL). While this practice safeguards flood-control safety, it can leave flood-control storage unused in small-flood years or when short-term forecasts are available, limiting further gains in reservoir benefits. To address this issue, we propose an FLWL optimization and control framework for the lower Jinsha River cascade-Wudongde (WDD), Baihetan (BHT), Xiluodu (XLD), and Xiangjiaba (XJB) reservoirs (Jinxia Reservoir Group). The framework integrates dynamic control of flood-season operating water levels, formulation and allocation of total pre-storage volume, and risk–benefit analysis. It includes three modules: (1) estimating the cascade-wide total pre-storage volume under multiple constraints using a pre-release capacity constraint method; (2) allocating this volume among alternative schemes to derive reservoir-specific dynamic FLWL control domains; (3) assessing maximum and expected risk rates together with hydropower benefits to identify the optimal pre-storage allocation plan. Application results show a total pre-storage volume of 2.16&#xa0;billion m³ (13.9% of total flood-control storage) and feasible dynamic operating water-level domains for all reservoirs. Under this constraint, risk rates for three schemes do not exceed those of conventional operation, while the multi-year mean flood-season hydropower generation increases by about 4%. Across eight flood seasons, cumulative additional generation reaches 30–32 TWh, with the equal-proportion allocation scheme delivering the largest gain. Overall, the proposed framework improves floodwater utilization with controllable risk, without compromising safety, and provides a practical basis for real-time flood-season operation and FLWL optimization in large cascade reservoir systems.</p>

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Research on Dynamic Control of Flood Control Level for Jinxia Reservoir Group Considering Risks

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月23日

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  • Min Li,
  • Yue Sun,
  • Rui Feng,
  • Wei Ding,
  • Qianning Wang,
  • Jinnan Zhang,
  • Yong Peng,
  • Feilin Zhu

摘要

Conventional flood-season regulation typically keeps reservoir water levels at or below the planned flood limited water level (FLWL). While this practice safeguards flood-control safety, it can leave flood-control storage unused in small-flood years or when short-term forecasts are available, limiting further gains in reservoir benefits. To address this issue, we propose an FLWL optimization and control framework for the lower Jinsha River cascade-Wudongde (WDD), Baihetan (BHT), Xiluodu (XLD), and Xiangjiaba (XJB) reservoirs (Jinxia Reservoir Group). The framework integrates dynamic control of flood-season operating water levels, formulation and allocation of total pre-storage volume, and risk–benefit analysis. It includes three modules: (1) estimating the cascade-wide total pre-storage volume under multiple constraints using a pre-release capacity constraint method; (2) allocating this volume among alternative schemes to derive reservoir-specific dynamic FLWL control domains; (3) assessing maximum and expected risk rates together with hydropower benefits to identify the optimal pre-storage allocation plan. Application results show a total pre-storage volume of 2.16 billion m³ (13.9% of total flood-control storage) and feasible dynamic operating water-level domains for all reservoirs. Under this constraint, risk rates for three schemes do not exceed those of conventional operation, while the multi-year mean flood-season hydropower generation increases by about 4%. Across eight flood seasons, cumulative additional generation reaches 30–32 TWh, with the equal-proportion allocation scheme delivering the largest gain. Overall, the proposed framework improves floodwater utilization with controllable risk, without compromising safety, and provides a practical basis for real-time flood-season operation and FLWL optimization in large cascade reservoir systems.