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<p>Freshwater, from different sources, is a precious natural resource limited in regions. It is continuously threatened by demographic growth and climate change, globally. Therefore, in this study, we developed Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for case study area in India to comprehend present and future water supply-demand gap while incorporating population growth. The model is parameterised to Kesinga Sub Catchment (KSC) of the middle reaches of Mahanadi River basin. The developed model has been used to simulate the climate change impact on streamflow using CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs for historical (base period 1981–2010) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5) on three future periods viz. 2011–2040 (2030s), 2041–2070 (2060s) and 2071–2100 (2090s). Scenario projections of GCM-based simulation showed that RCP2.6 has lowest temperature change whereas RCP4.5 predicted highest for 2030s and 2060s. At the same time, the annual precipitation is expected to get reduced significantly during the monsoon months specially in August and October in 2030s; August, September and October in 2060s and 2090s. However, there is an expected increase in annual streamflow under all RCPs. Results show that due to demographic growth, domestic water demand would remain unfulfilled in 2030s following RCP4.5 for Demand Site (DS)-4 and DS-3 by 20% and 1.4%, respectively. Further, water scarcity could affect water availability for agricultural activity. Development of such model highlights the importance of managing water supply-demand gap in the upstream areas of a basin to ensure sustainable water resources management and overall growth in river basins.</p>

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Impacts of Climate Change and Demographic Growth on Future Water Supply and Demand Gap in a River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月23日

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  • Mridusmita Debnath,
  • Ashok Mishra

摘要

Freshwater, from different sources, is a precious natural resource limited in regions. It is continuously threatened by demographic growth and climate change, globally. Therefore, in this study, we developed Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for case study area in India to comprehend present and future water supply-demand gap while incorporating population growth. The model is parameterised to Kesinga Sub Catchment (KSC) of the middle reaches of Mahanadi River basin. The developed model has been used to simulate the climate change impact on streamflow using CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs for historical (base period 1981–2010) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5) on three future periods viz. 2011–2040 (2030s), 2041–2070 (2060s) and 2071–2100 (2090s). Scenario projections of GCM-based simulation showed that RCP2.6 has lowest temperature change whereas RCP4.5 predicted highest for 2030s and 2060s. At the same time, the annual precipitation is expected to get reduced significantly during the monsoon months specially in August and October in 2030s; August, September and October in 2060s and 2090s. However, there is an expected increase in annual streamflow under all RCPs. Results show that due to demographic growth, domestic water demand would remain unfulfilled in 2030s following RCP4.5 for Demand Site (DS)-4 and DS-3 by 20% and 1.4%, respectively. Further, water scarcity could affect water availability for agricultural activity. Development of such model highlights the importance of managing water supply-demand gap in the upstream areas of a basin to ensure sustainable water resources management and overall growth in river basins.