Scholarlink

<p>This study provided a global attribution of climate change (CC) to terrestrial long-term droughts by comparing counterfactual and factual climate scenarios using GSWP3-W5E5, 20CRv3-W5E5, and 20CRv3-ERA5. The novelty of this work lies in quantitatively isolating CC signals from natural variability to assess shifts in drought frequency, multi-year droughts (MYDs)—defined as events lasting over 12 months—and trends during 1961–2019. Two drought indices—the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI12)—were applied. CC increased drought frequency across approximately half of the global land. This was more highlighted for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), parts of Africa, and parts of central and eastern Asia, wherein SPEI12-identified drought frequency increased by more than 10% under factual condition. MYDs were also predominantly attributed to CC on 20% and 26% of the global land for SPI12 and SPEI12, respectively, with the effect more pronounced in MENA. Additionally, CC shifted drought trends from neutral/wetting toward drying in 11% and 15% of global land using SPI12 and SPEI12, respectively, notably in parts of Africa, western Greenland, South America, and China. The CC influence has become more pronounced during the 21st century. SPEI12, incorporating atmospheric evaporative demand, was more responsive to CC than SPI12. An uncertainty analysis employing a bootstrapping algorithm highlighted some regions, particularly in MENA (for SPI), Greenland, and central Africa, where conflicting model signals rendered the attribution ambiguous. Overall, as CC-induced droughts intensify, effective water management must be closely aligned with climate adaptation strategies.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Global Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change to Terrestrial Long-Term Droughts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月6日

查看全文
  • Milad Nouri,
  • Mostafa Khorsandi

摘要

This study provided a global attribution of climate change (CC) to terrestrial long-term droughts by comparing counterfactual and factual climate scenarios using GSWP3-W5E5, 20CRv3-W5E5, and 20CRv3-ERA5. The novelty of this work lies in quantitatively isolating CC signals from natural variability to assess shifts in drought frequency, multi-year droughts (MYDs)—defined as events lasting over 12 months—and trends during 1961–2019. Two drought indices—the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI12)—were applied. CC increased drought frequency across approximately half of the global land. This was more highlighted for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), parts of Africa, and parts of central and eastern Asia, wherein SPEI12-identified drought frequency increased by more than 10% under factual condition. MYDs were also predominantly attributed to CC on 20% and 26% of the global land for SPI12 and SPEI12, respectively, with the effect more pronounced in MENA. Additionally, CC shifted drought trends from neutral/wetting toward drying in 11% and 15% of global land using SPI12 and SPEI12, respectively, notably in parts of Africa, western Greenland, South America, and China. The CC influence has become more pronounced during the 21st century. SPEI12, incorporating atmospheric evaporative demand, was more responsive to CC than SPI12. An uncertainty analysis employing a bootstrapping algorithm highlighted some regions, particularly in MENA (for SPI), Greenland, and central Africa, where conflicting model signals rendered the attribution ambiguous. Overall, as CC-induced droughts intensify, effective water management must be closely aligned with climate adaptation strategies.