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<p>Dams provide essential services like water storage and flood control, but they also pose significant risks to downstream populations during failures. This study assesses the potential socio-economic damages and loss of life downstream of the Cheruthoni Dam, Kerala (India), in the event of a dam break. Two scenarios were analyzed: (i) Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) impinging the reservoir at crest level, and (ii) PMF combined with dam break. Reservoir routing was simulated using HEC-HMS, while flood routing and dam-break analysis were carried out using HEC-RAS. Inundation maps were generated based on peak discharge, flood arrival time, flood depth, and flow velocity. Flood hazards were classified using the depth × velocity approach, revealing that 32%, 29%, and 20% of the inundated region fell under H5, H4, and H3 hazard classes, respectively, indicating catastrophic flooding in urban downstream areas. To quantify residential building damage, a novel data-driven flood depth–damage–reimbursement cost relationship was developed. The dam break is estimated to cause damages of approximately ₹1193 crores (~ USD 145&#xa0;million) to residential buildings. Potential fatalities were estimated using the SUFRI and Graham methodologies, with results indicating about 2,713 lives at risk. These findings provide critical inputs for quantitative risk assessments and can support policymakers in designing effective mitigation and emergency response strategies.</p>

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Assessment of Socio-Economic Damages Consequent To Dam Break Using A Data-Driven Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月19日

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  • Unni Balakrishnan,
  • Santosh G. Thampi,
  • Aditya Harikumar

摘要

Dams provide essential services like water storage and flood control, but they also pose significant risks to downstream populations during failures. This study assesses the potential socio-economic damages and loss of life downstream of the Cheruthoni Dam, Kerala (India), in the event of a dam break. Two scenarios were analyzed: (i) Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) impinging the reservoir at crest level, and (ii) PMF combined with dam break. Reservoir routing was simulated using HEC-HMS, while flood routing and dam-break analysis were carried out using HEC-RAS. Inundation maps were generated based on peak discharge, flood arrival time, flood depth, and flow velocity. Flood hazards were classified using the depth × velocity approach, revealing that 32%, 29%, and 20% of the inundated region fell under H5, H4, and H3 hazard classes, respectively, indicating catastrophic flooding in urban downstream areas. To quantify residential building damage, a novel data-driven flood depth–damage–reimbursement cost relationship was developed. The dam break is estimated to cause damages of approximately ₹1193 crores (~ USD 145 million) to residential buildings. Potential fatalities were estimated using the SUFRI and Graham methodologies, with results indicating about 2,713 lives at risk. These findings provide critical inputs for quantitative risk assessments and can support policymakers in designing effective mitigation and emergency response strategies.