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<p>The complexity of water resources management (WRM) is amplified by the interconnected challenges of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus, where anthropogenic activities and climatic conditions limit water accessibility. Collaborative approaches integrating local stakeholder perceptions are essential to address competing demands of agriculture, conservation, and ecosystems. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) employs soft computing to quantify qualitative data and simulate dynamic system behaviours through stakeholder participation. This study applies FCM to analyse stakeholder perceptions of water management challenges in the Menemen Plain, Gediz River Basin, Turkey. Through stakeholder workshops, causal relationships among concepts were identified and evaluated using FCM in Mentalmodeler. Eight scenarios were simulated by altering key stakeholder-defined concepts by ± 100%. Results indicated that irrigation water availability, young farmer employment, product price, and agricultural land fragmentation were the most sensitive parameters. Findings demonstrate that incorporating stakeholder perceptions via FCM significantly aids policy development and sustainable management.</p>

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Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping of Stakeholders’ Perception of Water Resources Management

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月27日

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  • Mert Can Gunacti,
  • Cem P. Cetinkaya,
  • Filiz Barbaros,
  • Ali Gul,
  • Gulay Onusluel Gul

摘要

The complexity of water resources management (WRM) is amplified by the interconnected challenges of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus, where anthropogenic activities and climatic conditions limit water accessibility. Collaborative approaches integrating local stakeholder perceptions are essential to address competing demands of agriculture, conservation, and ecosystems. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) employs soft computing to quantify qualitative data and simulate dynamic system behaviours through stakeholder participation. This study applies FCM to analyse stakeholder perceptions of water management challenges in the Menemen Plain, Gediz River Basin, Turkey. Through stakeholder workshops, causal relationships among concepts were identified and evaluated using FCM in Mentalmodeler. Eight scenarios were simulated by altering key stakeholder-defined concepts by ± 100%. Results indicated that irrigation water availability, young farmer employment, product price, and agricultural land fragmentation were the most sensitive parameters. Findings demonstrate that incorporating stakeholder perceptions via FCM significantly aids policy development and sustainable management.