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<p>We introduce an agent-based framework designed for a seasonal groundwater market that captures the behavior of market participants and the redistribution of water rights. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior (TPB), our model predicts users’ participation in the groundwater market as well as their pricing strategies. To validate this framework, we applied it to the Nough Plain in Iran. Our findings show that agricultural water users in the region currently generate an annual profit of 103.23 billion tomans(As of June 11, 2025, 1 toman was worth approximately 0.00001209 US dollars, according to the exchange rate published by the Central Bank of Iran.) by utilizing their adjusted water rights. With the implementation of a groundwater market, this profit rises by 10.2%, reaching 113.83 billion tomans. Furthermore, by simulating user behavior through the proposed agent-based framework, we observe total annual profits ranging from 105.8 to 112.4 billion tomans. These results suggest that actual user behavior deviates from the fully rational assumptions typically made in traditional water market models, leading to lower overall profits. Importantly, by encouraging improved behavior and greater participation among water users, the efficiency and performance of groundwater markets can be significantly enhanced.</p>

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Developing an Agent-based Water Market Mechanism for Sustainable Groundwater Management in Agricultural Regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月18日

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  • Soroush Sharghi,
  • Pooya Ghorbanpoor Sheikhani,
  • Reza Kerachian

摘要

We introduce an agent-based framework designed for a seasonal groundwater market that captures the behavior of market participants and the redistribution of water rights. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior (TPB), our model predicts users’ participation in the groundwater market as well as their pricing strategies. To validate this framework, we applied it to the Nough Plain in Iran. Our findings show that agricultural water users in the region currently generate an annual profit of 103.23 billion tomans(As of June 11, 2025, 1 toman was worth approximately 0.00001209 US dollars, according to the exchange rate published by the Central Bank of Iran.) by utilizing their adjusted water rights. With the implementation of a groundwater market, this profit rises by 10.2%, reaching 113.83 billion tomans. Furthermore, by simulating user behavior through the proposed agent-based framework, we observe total annual profits ranging from 105.8 to 112.4 billion tomans. These results suggest that actual user behavior deviates from the fully rational assumptions typically made in traditional water market models, leading to lower overall profits. Importantly, by encouraging improved behavior and greater participation among water users, the efficiency and performance of groundwater markets can be significantly enhanced.