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<p>This study proposes a modelling chain to assess climate change impacts on the future reliability of water supply systems fed by karst aquifers. EURO-CORDEX projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5and 8.5 are used to estimate spring discharge for 2021–2050 and 2041–2070. A regression model relates minimum annual spring discharge to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and reliability curves are derived after bias correction. The method is applied to four main karst aquifers in Central Italy that supply Rome and nearby areas. Specific results suggest a general decrease of reliability in the future scenarios. A general decline in aquifer reliability is projected, especially for 2041–2070. Aquifer Peschiera shows decreases of ~–11% (near-future) and − 8% (mid-future); Le Capore up to − 13%; Simbrivio − 6% to − 9%; Acqua Marcia ~–8%. The proposed methodology could be beneficial to water managers, as it offers support for planning adaptation measures that can reduce the impacts of climate change.</p>

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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Future Reliability of Water Supply Systems Served by Karst Aquifers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月28日

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  • Nunziarita Palazzolo,
  • David J. Peres,
  • Claudio Mineo,
  • Stefania Passaretti,
  • Anna Varriale,
  • Antonino Cancelliere

摘要

This study proposes a modelling chain to assess climate change impacts on the future reliability of water supply systems fed by karst aquifers. EURO-CORDEX projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5and 8.5 are used to estimate spring discharge for 2021–2050 and 2041–2070. A regression model relates minimum annual spring discharge to the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and reliability curves are derived after bias correction. The method is applied to four main karst aquifers in Central Italy that supply Rome and nearby areas. Specific results suggest a general decrease of reliability in the future scenarios. A general decline in aquifer reliability is projected, especially for 2041–2070. Aquifer Peschiera shows decreases of ~–11% (near-future) and − 8% (mid-future); Le Capore up to − 13%; Simbrivio − 6% to − 9%; Acqua Marcia ~–8%. The proposed methodology could be beneficial to water managers, as it offers support for planning adaptation measures that can reduce the impacts of climate change.