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<p>The intricate interaction between climate and land use changes induces complexities in water balance dynamics amid global environmental shifts. Substantive impacts are delineated via a case study conducted in the Narayani Basin, located within the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. To quantify the uncertainty in average water yield, Monte Carlo simulation and the Kernel Density Function are applied to outputs from the SWAT hydrological model. The analysis reveals changes in water balance components, marked by a general upward trend and increased variability. The water yield varies both spatially and temporally, exhibiting higher level of uncertainty. Scenario-specific variations in uncertainty are highlighted, emphasizing the interconnected effects of landscape transformation and climate change. Climate models are categorized into four scenarios, representing Wet_Cool, Wet_Warm, Dry_Cool, and Dry_Warm. In the Far Future, the Wet_Cool scenario (SSP585) shows the highest uncertainty in annual water yield (CV: 0.18), accompanied by a substantial 167% increase. In contrast, minimal uncertainty is observed in the Near Future under the Dry_Cool scenario (SSP245), with a CV of 0.165 and a modest 9% increase. These findings underscore the compound effects of climate and land use change, offering valuable insights for informed decision-making in water resource planning. The study highlights the importance of considering spatial uncertainties to achieve sustainable water management amid ongoing environmental transformations.</p>

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Navigating Uncertainties in Quantifying Water Availability Amidst the Climate and Land Use Changes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月20日

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  • Nirajan Devkota,
  • Suraj Lamichhane,
  • Pawan Kumar Bhattarai

摘要

The intricate interaction between climate and land use changes induces complexities in water balance dynamics amid global environmental shifts. Substantive impacts are delineated via a case study conducted in the Narayani Basin, located within the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. To quantify the uncertainty in average water yield, Monte Carlo simulation and the Kernel Density Function are applied to outputs from the SWAT hydrological model. The analysis reveals changes in water balance components, marked by a general upward trend and increased variability. The water yield varies both spatially and temporally, exhibiting higher level of uncertainty. Scenario-specific variations in uncertainty are highlighted, emphasizing the interconnected effects of landscape transformation and climate change. Climate models are categorized into four scenarios, representing Wet_Cool, Wet_Warm, Dry_Cool, and Dry_Warm. In the Far Future, the Wet_Cool scenario (SSP585) shows the highest uncertainty in annual water yield (CV: 0.18), accompanied by a substantial 167% increase. In contrast, minimal uncertainty is observed in the Near Future under the Dry_Cool scenario (SSP245), with a CV of 0.165 and a modest 9% increase. These findings underscore the compound effects of climate and land use change, offering valuable insights for informed decision-making in water resource planning. The study highlights the importance of considering spatial uncertainties to achieve sustainable water management amid ongoing environmental transformations.