Impact of Climate Change on Water Diversion Risk of Inter‑Basin Water Diversion Project

Reservoir operation of inter-basin water diversion project can effectively alleviate regional water shortage. However, future climate change will change regional runoff processes, which poses significant risks to the operation of inter-basin water diversion projects. The study considers occurrence probability of risk sources and risk-bearing bodies vulnerability, to constructs a risk operation system based on runoff forecast. Taking the inter-basin water diversion project from Hanjiang to Weihe River as a case, the study has made three contributions. Frist, the study uses the risk theory to derive the risk degree formula that consider multiple uncertain factors. Second, the difference in water diversion scale between risk operating and optimal operating is analyzed. The risk operating system can transfer the risk of water diversion from the dry period to the wet period, and reduce the probability of extreme risk. Third, the risk transfer law from water source area to water receiving area is quantified, and the influence law of risk source elements on risk degree is clarified. Risk source and risk bearing body in water receiving area are directly related to water shortage and its probability distribution. With the increase of water shortage probability, loss rate of socio-economic decreases. The research results have important application value for risk control of inter-basin water diversion projects and regional security of water supply.