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Background <p>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is among the fastest-rising causes of mortality in India, yet national projections of its future burden are scarce. We quantified the current CKD burden and forecast trajectories to 2040 under alternative scenarios.</p> Methods <p>Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates, we assessed CKD outcome data. Projections to 2040 were generated under: (i) flat-rate (stable age-specific rates), (ii) trend (continuing average annual percent change from 2010–2021), and (iii) policy scenario (achieving risk factor control targets), with population forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.</p> Results <p>In 2021, CKD caused 175,637 deaths (ASMR 12.4 per 100,000; 95% UI 10.4–14.9) and 6.49 million DALYs (ASDR 459 per 100,000; UI 393–534). Point prevalence was 128.0 million cases (9.3% of the population). In 2040, under flat-rate projections, CKD deaths will rise to 396,000 (UI 332,000–473,000) and DALYs to 14.6 million (UI 12.5–17.0 million) by 2040. In the trend scenario, deaths escalate to 556,000 (UI 465,000–671,000) and DALYs to 17.8 million (UI 15.4–20.7 million). By 2040, projected burden can be reduced by 15% if national diabetes and hypertension control targets are achieved.</p> Conclusion <p>By 2040, CKD is projected to become a top-five cause of death in India, with mortality potentially exceeding half a million annually. The contrast between trend and policy scenarios highlights a substantial preventable burden. Strengthening diabetes and hypertension control, integrating an early CKD detection program, and ensuring equitable access to renal replacement therapy are urgently needed to bend the trajectory.</p>

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Burden of chronic kidney disease in India: past, present, and future projections to 2040 from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月3日

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  • Hari Shankar Meshram,
  • Sanshriti Chauhan,
  • Saurabh Puri

摘要

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is among the fastest-rising causes of mortality in India, yet national projections of its future burden are scarce. We quantified the current CKD burden and forecast trajectories to 2040 under alternative scenarios.

Methods

Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates, we assessed CKD outcome data. Projections to 2040 were generated under: (i) flat-rate (stable age-specific rates), (ii) trend (continuing average annual percent change from 2010–2021), and (iii) policy scenario (achieving risk factor control targets), with population forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Results

In 2021, CKD caused 175,637 deaths (ASMR 12.4 per 100,000; 95% UI 10.4–14.9) and 6.49 million DALYs (ASDR 459 per 100,000; UI 393–534). Point prevalence was 128.0 million cases (9.3% of the population). In 2040, under flat-rate projections, CKD deaths will rise to 396,000 (UI 332,000–473,000) and DALYs to 14.6 million (UI 12.5–17.0 million) by 2040. In the trend scenario, deaths escalate to 556,000 (UI 465,000–671,000) and DALYs to 17.8 million (UI 15.4–20.7 million). By 2040, projected burden can be reduced by 15% if national diabetes and hypertension control targets are achieved.

Conclusion

By 2040, CKD is projected to become a top-five cause of death in India, with mortality potentially exceeding half a million annually. The contrast between trend and policy scenarios highlights a substantial preventable burden. Strengthening diabetes and hypertension control, integrating an early CKD detection program, and ensuring equitable access to renal replacement therapy are urgently needed to bend the trajectory.