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<p>The livestock and poultry sector in Indian agriculture is progressively becoming a strong development driver and an attractive avenue for augmenting farm incomes. This study presents a comprehensive temporal analysis of national level data from 2000 to 2024, examining trends in animal/bird slaughter numbers, meat production, and yield for buffalo, sheep, goat, pig, and poultry. Our analysis reveals significant compound annual growth rates (CAGR) across all species and indicators. A decomposition analysis further delineates that this growth was primarily driven by an increase in the number of animals/birds slaughtered, with yield improvements playing a secondary, yet notable, role. The Bai-Perron test identified multiple structural breaks across the series, highlighting significant shifts in production dynamics over the period. Finally, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were employed to forecast these series for the next five years (2025–2029), projecting continued growth for most sectors. The findings underscore evolving structural trends with critical implications for sector-specific policy, strategic investment, and future research aimed at enhancing productivity and sustainability.</p>

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How has India’s meat production evolved over the last twenty-five years, and what can we expect in the near future?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月14日

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  • Debopam Rakshit,
  • D. Bardhan

摘要

The livestock and poultry sector in Indian agriculture is progressively becoming a strong development driver and an attractive avenue for augmenting farm incomes. This study presents a comprehensive temporal analysis of national level data from 2000 to 2024, examining trends in animal/bird slaughter numbers, meat production, and yield for buffalo, sheep, goat, pig, and poultry. Our analysis reveals significant compound annual growth rates (CAGR) across all species and indicators. A decomposition analysis further delineates that this growth was primarily driven by an increase in the number of animals/birds slaughtered, with yield improvements playing a secondary, yet notable, role. The Bai-Perron test identified multiple structural breaks across the series, highlighting significant shifts in production dynamics over the period. Finally, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were employed to forecast these series for the next five years (2025–2029), projecting continued growth for most sectors. The findings underscore evolving structural trends with critical implications for sector-specific policy, strategic investment, and future research aimed at enhancing productivity and sustainability.