<p>The penetration depth of tread rubber is an important parameter in the tire-road contact process, which is directly related to the evaluation of tire-road wear and friction. A new method for calculating tread rubber-pavement contact penetration depth, which combines theoretical derivation and simulation analysis, is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the equivalent contact model of two elastic bodies was constructed based on Persson theory, and the pavement was simplified to a rigid substrate. The self-affine fractal characteristics of pavement are verified by the height difference function, and the theoretical model of penetration depth was derived by combining the energy conservation principle. On this basis, ABAQUS was used to establish a finite element model, and MATLAB was used to process relevant data to realize numerical simulation calculation of penetration depth. By comparing the analytical data with Persson's theoretical model, the coefficient of determination R2 is greater than 60%, which proved the feasibility of this method. Based on the above method, the influence of rubber aspect ratio and material parameters on penetration depth was further explored. The results showed that the penetration depth fluctuated with the increase of aspect ratio when the aspect ratio of tread rubber was 16.67% ~ 33.33%, and the effect of aspect ratio on penetration depth was negligible when the aspect ratio was 33.33% ~ 100%. The elastic modulus of rubber is negatively correlated with penetration depth. Based on the above rules, a multiple linear regression prediction model was constructed. Three independent datasets were used for verification, with relative errors ranging from 0 to 5%, indicating that the model has good prediction accuracy. This study provides a reliable method for efficient calculation of tire-road contact penetration depth and has important reference value for optimizing tire design and improving driving safety.</p>