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<p>We examine how individual learning and group consensus interact in a dynamic extension of the Condorcet Jury Theorem by comparing the evolution of collective competence in juries with individual performance. We model individual learning using logistic functions and measure consensus through positive correlation between individual judgments. Short-term analysis compares the logistic and Condorcet trajectories near initial conditions, while long-term analysis examines how asymptotic solutions depend on model parameters.</p>

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Dynamics of jury competence with correlated judgments

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月22日

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  • Serguei Kaniovski,
  • Alexander Zaigraev

摘要

We examine how individual learning and group consensus interact in a dynamic extension of the Condorcet Jury Theorem by comparing the evolution of collective competence in juries with individual performance. We model individual learning using logistic functions and measure consensus through positive correlation between individual judgments. Short-term analysis compares the logistic and Condorcet trajectories near initial conditions, while long-term analysis examines how asymptotic solutions depend on model parameters.