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<p>In traditional decision-making, when faced with a choice between two seemingly equivalent options, a common approach is to resort to a random decision, such as a coin toss. However, this paper proposes deterministic rules that outperform such stochastic methods by achieving the same expected value while minimizing variance. Furthermore, we demonstrate numerically that, for a reasonable number of choices, our proposed rule second-order stochastically dominates the coin-tossing approach. Consequently, risk-averse decision-makers may prefer our deterministic method over traditional coin tossing.</p>

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Selecting among equivalent options: a superior rule to coin tossing in pairwise comparisons

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Martín Egozcue,
  • Luis Fuentes García

摘要

In traditional decision-making, when faced with a choice between two seemingly equivalent options, a common approach is to resort to a random decision, such as a coin toss. However, this paper proposes deterministic rules that outperform such stochastic methods by achieving the same expected value while minimizing variance. Furthermore, we demonstrate numerically that, for a reasonable number of choices, our proposed rule second-order stochastically dominates the coin-tossing approach. Consequently, risk-averse decision-makers may prefer our deterministic method over traditional coin tossing.