Performance evaluation of complex systems based on hierarchical evidential reasoning rule considering disturbances

To prevent adverse consequences for performance deterioration, it is of great importance to evaluate performance promptly and implement precautions at the right time. Therefore, aiming at the performance evaluation problem of complex systems, a model based on the hierarchical evidential reasoning (HER) rule is proposed to integrate multi-layer uncertain information. The multi-layer indicators collected from complex systems are integrated into a belief structure, considering adaptive weights and adaptive reliability. Besides, complex systems are susceptible to both internal and external disturbances, resulting in performance fluctuations. Therefore, a disturbance analysis method for the HER rule is introduced to measure the influence of disturbance on the system. Finally, a bearing system is examined as a case study to assess the rationality of the HER rule and the effect of disturbances on the whole system.