On Prediction of Solar Wind Speed Large-Scale Structures Using the Solar Full-Disk Multi-Layer Magnetograph - the New Chinese Facility Constructed for the International Meridian Circle Program
摘要
Space weather is one of the most rapidly developing branches of science, important not only for pure heliophysics, but also for many areas of geophysics, space- and air-flights industry, electrical systems, and even for medicine in the sense of meteorological and terrestrial magnetic field dependence of human beings health. There are direct connections between processes on the Sun and near Earth space environment, including magnetosphere and ionosphere. For this reason the International Meridian Circle Program (IMCP), suggested by China and that has recently started working in operational mode, incorporates a new solar instrument – the Solar Full-disk Multi-layer Magnetograph (SFMM) – as one of its key elements. One of the main SFMM purposes is the prediction of solar wind parameters on the basis of full-disk observations of solar magnetic fields. Because it is known that the results of space weather predictions strongly depend on initial low boundary conditions (synoptic magnetic maps from different observatories), an addition of the new source of such data is extremely important and welcome.
This paper is the first attempt to build a synoptic magnetic map on the basis of daily full-disk measurements at the SFMM, to analyze its robustness, to use it for ambient solar wind speed forecasting, and to compare the modeling results with in situ data from the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE). It is demonstrated that an agreement between ACE measurements and SFMM predictions is not perfect and this issue is discussed. It is demonstrated that agreement could be significantly improved by means of modifications of some PFSS–WSA model parameters. Additionally it is shown that the solar magnetic field strengths detected with SFMM are practically the same as measured by the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), but significantly higher (almost 4 times) than measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO). This result has no direct link with space weather modeling using the PFSS approach, but is discussed in in the context of cross-calibration of magnetic field measurements made by different observatories and/or using different spectral lines.