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<p>Assessment of long-term Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variability is essential for understanding solar forcing of the Earth system. In this study, two new TSI composites are created from satellite observations of VIRGO/PMO6Va, ACRIM-II, SORCE/TIM, TSIS/TIM and TCTE/TIM by incorporating time-dependent and instrument-specific uncertainty estimates. The square root of sunspot number (SSN) and F10.7 index were individually used as time- dependent solar proxies for Composite-1 and Composite-2 respectively. The composites of selected individual TSI datasets were merged by the inverse-variance weighting method. The uncertainty values for both composites largely fall within the 2<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>σ</mi> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\sigma $</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> range of approximately 0 – 0.5 <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <msup> <mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msup> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\mathrm{W} /\mathrm{m}^{2}$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Their interchangeability with original satellite observations was confirmed by Bland-Altman analysis. When compared with VIRGO, 96.52% of the data points fall within the 95% limits of agreement, which is consistent with the expected coverage of mean ± 1.96<InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>σ</mi> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\sigma $</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The evidence of solar activity in TSI composites was validated by Magnitude Squared Coherence analysis for short periodicities less than 27d quasi-solar rotational periods and Power Spectrum Density analysis for long periodicities such as the Schwabe cycle, resulting in 7d, 9d, 27d and 11-year periodicities and annual periodicities related to orbital or instrumental effects.</p>

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Development of TSI Composites Using Unified Uncertainty Estimation Validated by Bland-Altman Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • J. M. Aclin Merisha,
  • A. Iren Sobia

摘要

Assessment of long-term Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) variability is essential for understanding solar forcing of the Earth system. In this study, two new TSI composites are created from satellite observations of VIRGO/PMO6Va, ACRIM-II, SORCE/TIM, TSIS/TIM and TCTE/TIM by incorporating time-dependent and instrument-specific uncertainty estimates. The square root of sunspot number (SSN) and F10.7 index were individually used as time- dependent solar proxies for Composite-1 and Composite-2 respectively. The composites of selected individual TSI datasets were merged by the inverse-variance weighting method. The uncertainty values for both composites largely fall within the 2 σ $\sigma $ range of approximately 0 – 0.5 W / m 2 $\mathrm{W} /\mathrm{m}^{2}$ . Their interchangeability with original satellite observations was confirmed by Bland-Altman analysis. When compared with VIRGO, 96.52% of the data points fall within the 95% limits of agreement, which is consistent with the expected coverage of mean ± 1.96 σ $\sigma $ . The evidence of solar activity in TSI composites was validated by Magnitude Squared Coherence analysis for short periodicities less than 27d quasi-solar rotational periods and Power Spectrum Density analysis for long periodicities such as the Schwabe cycle, resulting in 7d, 9d, 27d and 11-year periodicities and annual periodicities related to orbital or instrumental effects.