<p>Recently, a novel blast wave solution based on shock dynamics had been proposed. This study adopts a series of improvements and optimization strategies to develop this solution for the purpose of real forecasting capabilities, which leads to a Blast Wave Model (BWM). Firstly, an empirical formula was used to derive the initial shock velocity from the linear speed of the associated coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Secondly, a correction relation was introduced to account for the effect of the shock’s main propagation direction on its arrival time. Finally, an appropriate judgment index was established to allow the BWM model to determine whether a shock would reach the Earth. The BWM model was used to predict the arrival times of 337 shock events associated with CMEs from January 2013 to July 2023, and the prediction results demonstrated that the success rate for the shock’s arrival and non-arrival is as high as 64%. For those Earth-reaching events, the model had an averaged absolute forecast error of 9.1 hours for the arrival time, and a relative error of less than 15% for 61% cases. Compared with other models of the same kind (three versions of the Shock Propagation Model, the Shock Time of Arrival model), the BWM model shows a higher level of forecast accuracy and smaller prediction errors of the shock arrival time.</p>