Scholarlink

<p>Rolling and expanding windows are widely used in age-specific demographic modeling and forecasting. Building on these approaches, we propose a simple combination method that assigns equal weight to the forecasts from both schemes. Our focus is on evaluating and comparing the forecast accuracy of the two window types in modeling age-specific mortality and fertility. Based on the multi-country comparison, the superior performance of one method often persists across different forecast horizons. In the absence of prior information, our combined approach offers a robust and practical alternative.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Age-specific Demographic Modeling and Forecasting: Rolling Window, Expanding Window, or Both?

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月21日

查看全文
  • Sizhe Chen,
  • Han Lin Shang

摘要

Rolling and expanding windows are widely used in age-specific demographic modeling and forecasting. Building on these approaches, we propose a simple combination method that assigns equal weight to the forecasts from both schemes. Our focus is on evaluating and comparing the forecast accuracy of the two window types in modeling age-specific mortality and fertility. Based on the multi-country comparison, the superior performance of one method often persists across different forecast horizons. In the absence of prior information, our combined approach offers a robust and practical alternative.