Postmaterialism, Generational Replacement and Value Change: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of the US, Japan, Türkiye and China

Postmaterialism has long been considered an expressive value embraced by certain cohorts who grew up in a relatively wealthy environment. This study challenges this generational replacement hypothesis and suggests that value shifts in a population often can be attributed to period effects. By simultaneously observing the changing value trends of the US, Japan, Türkiye and China over 20 years on the basis of the data of the World Values Survey, this study performs an age-period-cohort analysis to effectively differentiate the otherwise knotted effects of age, period and cohort in contexts of different income levels and cultural backgrounds. The results show that cohort characteristics are less obvious than the influences brought about by specific period factors. Additionally, religion appear to be highly influential. Two important contributions are noted. First, more effective estimation of age, period and cohort effects is a necessity for advancing strong evidence-based arguments to understand value shifts toward postmaterialism. Second, subscribing to a new, different value position at a societal level can happen in a short duration with observable cross-sectional differences whose underlying logics need more research attention.