Re-Examining the Direction of the Relationship Between Optimism and Subjective Well-Being

While optimism is often assumed to predict subjective well-being, few longitudinal studies have actually examined the directionality of this relationship over time. To address this gap, the current study examined within-person associations between optimism and facets of subjective well-being (i.e., negative affect, positive affect, life satisfaction) over time using data from the Health and Retirement Study. The sample consisted of American adults surveyed every four years between 2008 and 2020, with a mean age of approximately 62 years at baseline. Results of the random intercept cross-lagged panel model showed reciprocal within-person associations: Increases in life satisfaction and positive affect predicted future increases in optimism, and vice versa. Negative affect and optimism were also negatively and reciprocally related. Subjective well-being was a stronger predictor of future optimism than vice versa. This study challenges the common notion that subjective well-being is merely an outcome of optimism, showing instead that subjective well-being also predicts future optimism. The results also highlight the value of taking a within-person perspective to clarify directionality in the association between psychological constructs.