<p>Research suggests that the disruptiveness of scientific research has declined over recent decades. Several explanations have been published for the decrease. In this paper, we add another explanation based on a probability calculus for explaining progress in science from the philosopher of science Karl Popper.</p>

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Popper’s probability calculus and the decline of scientific disruptiveness

  • Lutz Bornmann,
  • Russell J. Funk

摘要

Research suggests that the disruptiveness of scientific research has declined over recent decades. Several explanations have been published for the decrease. In this paper, we add another explanation based on a probability calculus for explaining progress in science from the philosopher of science Karl Popper.