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<p>As nations race to meet increasingly urgent climate targets, understanding the institutional and behavioral conditions that enable cleaner production has become essential. This study conceptualizes entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs) as national configurations of institutional supports and burdens, innovation and market infrastructures, and cognitive-cultural conditions, as captured by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). Climate performance is operationalized through four distinct domains from the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI): renewable energy, energy efficiency, emissions, and climate policy, each analyzed separately to maintain analytical precision and identify domain-specific EE drivers. Using data from 54 countries spanning 2007 to 2023, we apply a dual-method approach that integrates Arellano-corrected fixed-effects panel regression with ensemble machine learning techniques (boosting, SHAP, PDPs) to uncover both causal relationships and predictive patterns, with the latter complementing rather than replacing the explanatory analysis. Our findings reveal that EEs are not peripheral but central to national climate outcomes. Post-school entrepreneurial education (PSEE), perceived entrepreneurial opportunities (PO), and supportive government programs (GSP) consistently predict stronger climate performance. Conversely, high tax and bureaucratic burdens (TB) and fear of failure (FFR) are associated with weaker emissions control and less ambitious climate policy. Importantly, the analysis highlights key nonlinearities: for example, the impact of entrepreneurial intentions (EI) and total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) depends heavily on institutional alignment and financial infrastructure. These insights support an integrative theoretical model that positions EEs as multi-layered infrastructures linking innovation capacity, institutional design, and behavioral readiness for climate transformation. Overall, this study provides robust empirical evidence that well-configured entrepreneurship ecosystems can act as powerful enablers of cleaner production and environmental resilience. The findings carry significant implications for policymakers, educators, and development institutions aiming to align entrepreneurship policy with sustainability goals.</p>

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Entrepreneurship ecosystems and national climate change performance: a global multi-method analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月7日

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  • Mehmet Ali Köseoglu,
  • Nagihan Cakmakoglu Arici

摘要

As nations race to meet increasingly urgent climate targets, understanding the institutional and behavioral conditions that enable cleaner production has become essential. This study conceptualizes entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs) as national configurations of institutional supports and burdens, innovation and market infrastructures, and cognitive-cultural conditions, as captured by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). Climate performance is operationalized through four distinct domains from the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI): renewable energy, energy efficiency, emissions, and climate policy, each analyzed separately to maintain analytical precision and identify domain-specific EE drivers. Using data from 54 countries spanning 2007 to 2023, we apply a dual-method approach that integrates Arellano-corrected fixed-effects panel regression with ensemble machine learning techniques (boosting, SHAP, PDPs) to uncover both causal relationships and predictive patterns, with the latter complementing rather than replacing the explanatory analysis. Our findings reveal that EEs are not peripheral but central to national climate outcomes. Post-school entrepreneurial education (PSEE), perceived entrepreneurial opportunities (PO), and supportive government programs (GSP) consistently predict stronger climate performance. Conversely, high tax and bureaucratic burdens (TB) and fear of failure (FFR) are associated with weaker emissions control and less ambitious climate policy. Importantly, the analysis highlights key nonlinearities: for example, the impact of entrepreneurial intentions (EI) and total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) depends heavily on institutional alignment and financial infrastructure. These insights support an integrative theoretical model that positions EEs as multi-layered infrastructures linking innovation capacity, institutional design, and behavioral readiness for climate transformation. Overall, this study provides robust empirical evidence that well-configured entrepreneurship ecosystems can act as powerful enablers of cleaner production and environmental resilience. The findings carry significant implications for policymakers, educators, and development institutions aiming to align entrepreneurship policy with sustainability goals.